Counting the number of financial talking heads this weekend saying that we have "hit bottom" would take a statistician of formidable skills. One thing I have found in living through more than my share of market turmoils (6 that I can remember) is that very few "smart people" call the bear market right when the reversal takes place. Bear markets usually reverse when everyone is so bearish that they only think they can see if "the sky is falling, the sky is falling."
Since everyone is talking about this being the bottom, I think we are likely going to get a "sucker's rally" to take the market back to the Dow 10,000 level and then it will move back down to lower levels we are at right now, Dow 8300. During the sucker's rally, everyone will be talking about how the bear is over and we can all get back into the market with assurance that we will all make money. When the earnings and fundamentals don't pan out due to the fact the the public has stopped consuming, the market tanks and moves back down to the same or lower level that previous pullback occurred.
Be aware that there are some things that are very different with this financial turmoil:
1. It is global in nature since the USA exported much of the toxic paper to other countries
2. The global Internet allows rich people to move money between locales with the touch of a button, this is what I call the "monetary speed of relocalization". This concept has never been easier or faster.
3. It is real estate based and financial turmoils based on real estate devaluation problems usually take much longer to resolve themselves: see 1929-1336. Non-real estate devaluation crashes such as 1969, 1973, and 1980 all corrected with 12-18 months.
This correction is asset-valuation based and so could take longer to pull out. So be careful.
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