Saturday, November 15, 2008

Outlook for the markets this next week

The markets did a huge pull-back (PB) right at the close on Friday, and that usually does not bode well for the opening of the futures on Sunday evening 1800 (6:00PM) EST. If the market continues down as the NZ,AU markets come on line at 1800 and then the Asian markets at 2130 EST followed by the European markets at 0330 EST.
 
If these openings bring the SP 500 down form its levels on Friday afternoon, then the markets are going to sell-off again and this time it could take out the 800 level on the SP 500 and move into the 7000 on the DOW. This will most likely produce the capitulation and the bottoms in the market needed to form the next pattern to the upside.
 
The patterns forming in the market are very atypical for a post-election period. History has shown that most post-election time periods are rallies in the market not dumps to new lows of the year. However, we could still get a rally if the market sells off far enough to bring back the buyers, but only if investors once again gain confidence that the US Government isn't going to continue to play around with the rules.
 
If BHO and his SMDC start re-regulating the markets, increasing taxes on capital, and making changes to how markets operate, it could sell-off even further while those with capital begin removing investments from the US market and moving to where capital is treated with less hostility.
 
This will cause the US Dollar to drop as assets denominated in US Dollars are sold to begin the moving or redenomination of the assets into the new investment locale's monetary standard. This could force another round of US capital market sell-offs.
 
Sorry the news isn't better, but when capital is treated with disrespect, it leaves your country. It's that simple to understand.
 

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